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Can You Buy A Presidential Election?
After spending $1 billion on a presidential run, former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg dropped out of the race for the Democratic nomination following Super Tuesday, securing just 44 pledged...
View ArticleSanders Shouldn’t Expect A Big Delegate Boost From Candidates Who Dropped Out
With Super Tuesday under our belts and contests in six more states wrapping up on Tuesday,1 we are in the thick of the March delegate blitz. Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio vote on March 17, and by...
View ArticleConfidence Interval: Sanders Still Has A Shot
Welcome to another episode of Confidence Interval, where we make a persuasive case for a political argument and then reveal just how confident we really are. In this video, managing editor Micah Cohen...
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After Super Tuesday, Joe Biden Is A Clear Favorite To Win The Nomination
After a huge night on Super Tuesday — and with all his major opponents5 except Sen. Bernie Sanders having dropped out — former Vice President Joe Biden is a strong favorite to win the Democratic...
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What We Know About The Voters Who Swung Super Tuesday For Biden
Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll of the week A key part of former Vice President Joe Biden’s success on Super Tuesday was his strong performance among voters who had only made...
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Does Sanders Need A New Strategy?
Welcome to a special edition of FiveThirtyEight’s politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Sen. Bernie Sanders objectively did not have a...
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Biden Won Super Tuesday Because He Won Voters Who Decided Late
On Super Tuesday, it was better late than never for former Vice President Joe Biden. Late-deciding voters, that is. One consistent trend across the country was that voters who made their minds up in...
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How Biden Beat Expectations On Super Tuesday
Super Tuesday was very good to Joe Biden. Roughly one-third of Democrats nationwide cast their ballots for president in the first big primary election of the year, although not all of those ballots...
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Politics Podcast: Biden Won Super Tuesday. What Now?
By Galen Druke, Micah Cohen and Clare Malone, Galen Druke, Micah Cohen and Clare Malone and Galen Druke, Micah Cohen and Clare Malone More: Apple Podcasts | ESPN App | RSS | Embed Embed Code...
View ArticleConfidence Interval: The Media Will Underrate Bernie Sanders On Super Tuesday
Here’s another installment in our new video series Confidence Interval. First, we’ll present you with a “take” or hypothesis we’ve heard floating around regarding the 2020 presidential election. Then...
View ArticleFive Scenarios For How Super Tuesday Could Go
Earlier today, my colleague Nathaniel Rakich and I wrote about the final FiveThirtyEight forecast before Super Tuesday. There are basically two big themes there. First, yes, the model has shifted...
View ArticleSuper Tuesday Preview: Can Anyone Stop Biden In Alabama, Arkansas, Oklahoma...
Today’s Super Tuesday, and while there will be a lot of focus on the really big states like California and Texas, every contest will matter if the race turns into a prolonged battle for delegates all...
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Our Final Forecast For Super Tuesday Shows Biden’s Surge — And Lots Of...
Former Vice President Joe Biden has gotten a lot of good news over the past few days. A huge, almost 30-point win in South Carolina. A series of impressive endorsements. Other candidates in the...
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What Are The Biggest Super Tuesday Wild Cards?
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Today is Super Tuesday! The Super Bowl of primary elections...
View ArticleSuper Tuesday Preview: Sanders Is Favored In California, But Biden Is Strong...
Fifty-three congressional districts, 415 pledged delegates, potentially 10 million voters — California is the big kahuna of Super Tuesday. According to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast, Sen. Bernie...
View ArticleSuper Tuesday Preview: Sanders And Biden Are Duking It Out In Texas
Super Tuesday is tomorrow (!), so FiveThirtyEight is unpacking what our forecast has to say about the 14 states and one territory voting that day. We’ve already gone through the state of play in many...
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Election Update: Klobuchar’s Exit Boosts The Odds No One Will Win A Delegate...
On Monday afternoon, Sen. Amy Klobuchar suspended her campaign for president, and she will now endorse former Vice President Joe Biden at a rally tonight. It’s hard to miss that this came on the heels...
View ArticlePolitics Podcast: What’s At Stake On Super Tuesday
By Galen Druke, Micah Cohen, Clare Malone and Nate Silver, Galen Druke, Micah Cohen, Clare Malone and Nate Silver, Galen Druke, Micah Cohen, Clare Malone and Nate Silver and Galen Druke, Micah Cohen,...
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What Makes Southern Democrats Unique
From 1964 to 2008, three Democratic presidential candidates made it to the White House. All of them were southerners. Yet for the last half-century, the GOP’s Southern strategy eroded the Democratic...
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